The cycle

6 of the 14 conditions that came before past US recessions are in place today; 1 more is getting close.

6 in place, 1 getting close, 7 not in place. Which is which, in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which ones, how close the rest are, and what followed the last times this many lined up. Read it

Where money moved

The United States took in $475 billion more than it sent out across the latest periods of bank lending, securities purchases and direct investment. One country sent out more than any other.

$475 billion

Net inflow to the United States, each source over its own latest period. The largest sender, in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which country, where the money went and into what. Read it

A signal to watch

A net 11.3% of banks eased their standards for commercial real estate loans in the Fed's July 2026 survey: easier than in 96% of the surveys since 2013.

Easiest since 2013Tightest

Where the latest reading sits in its record since 2013.

In SERA IQ: what the other warning signals read, and what followed the earlier times each one held. Read it

Real assets and costs

Diesel fuel prices rose 77.8% in the year to August 2026: higher than in 94% of the twelve-month changes of the past 20 years.

Lowest changeHighest change

Where the latest twelve-month change sits in 20 years of prices.

In SERA IQ: which inputs and markets moved most, and which industries feel it. Read it

Private capital

Private raises reported $203 billion of new capital in the four weeks to October 9, 2026, 8% more than the four weeks before. Two asset classes that read Hot in the four weeks before have cooled.

How many of the eight asset classes read each temperature against their own last six months. Which is which, in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which classes, which are warming, and how raises like the one you are working on are doing there. Read it