The cycle

6 of the 14 conditions that came before past US recessions are in place today; 1 more is getting close.

6 in place, 1 getting close, 7 not in place. Which is which, in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which ones, how close the rest are, and what followed the last times this many lined up. Read it

Where money moved

The United States took in $563 billion more than it sent out across the latest periods of bank lending, securities purchases and direct investment. One country sent out more than any other.

$563 billion

Net inflow to the United States, each source over its own latest period. The largest sender, in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which country, where the money went and into what. Read it

A signal to watch

A net 11.3% of banks eased their standards for commercial real estate loans in the Fed's July 2026 survey: easier than in 96% of the surveys since 2013.

Easiest since 2013Tightest

Where the latest reading sits in its record since 2013.

In SERA IQ: what the other warning signals read, and what followed the earlier times each one held. Read it

Real assets and costs

Funds' net position in lean hogs was more bearish than in 99% of the weeks of the past 10 years, as of October 13, 2026.

Most bearishMost bullish

Where funds' latest net position sits in 10 years of positions.

In SERA IQ: which inputs and markets moved most, and which industries feel it. Read it

Private capital

Private raises reported $202 billion of new capital in the four weeks to October 19, 2026, 11% more than the four weeks before. Two asset classes that read Warm in the four weeks before have cooled.

How many of the eight asset classes read each temperature against their own last six months. Each class is named in SERA IQ.

In SERA IQ: which classes, which are warming, and how raises like the one you are working on are doing there. Read it

Private capital spotlight

Technology raises filing a Form D reached their highest four-week count in three years. 466 technology raises filed a Form D in the four weeks to October 16, 2026, against 444 in the four weeks before; they reported $11.0 billion of new capital, against $15.3 billion. 67 technology raises filed their first Form D in the week to October 16, 2026.

Fewest raises since 2023Most raises

The track: where the latest four weeks sit among the 39 periods of four weeks since October 2023; the boxes: their raises by the target stated. The most common target was under $5M, stated by 66% of the raises in the boxes. Asset classes as SERA IQ's Find capital page groups them.

In SERA IQ: comparable raises in this class, each with its issuer, target and amount sold. Read it